A Minsk, dopo 15 ore di trattative a vari livelli, è stato firmato un cessate il fuoco che entrerà in vigore dalla mezzanotte del 15 febbraio. Domenica prossima quindi le armi dovrebbero tacere nel Donbass.
Le armi pesanti dovrebbero essere arretrate di 50 chilometri dalla linea di contatto per le artigleirie e 140 Km per MLRS e Missili balistici, i centri urbani esclusi da qualsiasi combattimento; tuttavia non si fa accenno allo statuto definitivo delle terre del Donbass e non è chiaro come verrà considerata la sacca di Deblachevo e come sarà possibile fare in modo che le armi presenti in quell’area del fronte possano essere ritirate per 30 chilometri senza lasciare inesorabilmente sguarnite le unità Ucraine che tentano la resistenza in quell’area. Lo stesso ragionamento vale per la zona dell’aeroporto di Donetsk, dove senza l’appoggio delle artiglierie sarebbe difficile per i filorussi tenere senza problemi quell’area strategica.
L’accordo firmato poche ore fa non è però stato firmato dai separatisti che quindi si ritengono formalmente “non vincolati” all’accordo.
Esiste inoltre un problema riguardante le truppe paramilitari di Kiev che, in alcune occasioni, nei giorni scorsi avrebbero agito in maniera indipendente rispetto agli ordini degli alti comandi ucraini.
A Minsk, secondo il nostro punto di vista, non è stato trovato un accordo che possa assicurare la pace, ma è solo stato firmato un documento che permetterà alle formazioni sul campo di riorganizzarsi e preparare le nuove manovre militari di primavera.
Se non verrà trovata una soluzione condivisa sullo statuto del Donbass la guerra in Ucraina continuerà, e non saranno gli accordi sottoscritti per “dovere di stato” in Bielorussia a fermare questo conflitto.
Questo formato di accordo è già fallito in passato, dopo aver permesso un periodo di relativa calma ma mai di vero cessate il fuoco. Non vediamo in questo accordo nulla di innovativo, rispetto a quello di alcuni mesi fa, e per questo riteniamo che questa fase, delle trattative e del conflitto, sia solo intrelocutoria, nella speranza di trovare una soluzione di pace ma essendo pienamente coscienti che le parti useranno questo tempo anche per migliorare i propri eserciti e l’addestramento delle proprie unità militari.
Addendum
Il Ministro Tedesco degli Esteri Steinmeier ha affermato che l’accordo è solo verbale e non firmato dalle parti, il Presidente Russo Putin ha affermato inoltre che un accordo di lungo periodo includerà una forma di autonomia per il Donbass
Secondo Addendum
A Set of Measures for the Performance of Minsk Agreements
Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation commencing at 00 h. 00 min. (Kiev), on February 15, 2015.
Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distances in order to create a security zone with a width of at least 50 km between them for artillery systems with a calibre of 100 mm and more, and a security zone with a width of 70 km for MLRS and with a width of 140 km for MLRS “Tornado-S” “Uragan,” “Smerch” and tactical missile systems “Tochka” (“Tochka-U”):
– for the Ukrainian troops: from the actual line of contact;
– for the armed forces of the certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine: from the line of contact in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014.
The withdrawal of heavy weapons set out above shall begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire and end within 14 days.
This process will be assisted by the OSCE, with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
On the part of the OSCE, to ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the first day of the withdrawal, with the use of all necessary means, including satellites, drones, radar systems and so forth.
On the first day following the withdrawal to begin a dialogue with respect to the modalities of the local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions,” as well as with respect to the future operation of these areas on the basis of the Law.
Immediately, and not later than 30 days from the date of execution of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of the territory covered by the special regime provided for in the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions”, [such territory] to be based on the line set out in the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014
Provide pardons and amnesties by means of enacting a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
Facilitate the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process must be completed no later than on the fifth day after the withdrawal.
Provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian assistance to those in need on the basis of an international mechanism.
Determination of the modalities of the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including social transfers, such as pensions and other payments (receipts and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).
To this end, Ukraine shall reestablish control over the segment of its banking system in the areas affected by conflict, and it is possible that an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers will be created.
Restoration of full control over the state border on the part of the government of Ukraine throughout the conflict zone, which shall begin on the first day following the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement ([to wit:] local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and a constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, subject to the performance of Paragraph 11 – in consultation and by agreement with the representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and the Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Withdrawal of all foreign armed units, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. The disarmament of all illegal groups.
Passing of a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force of a new constitution by the end of 2015, which shall incorporate decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions, to be agreed upon with the representatives of these areas), as well as the adoption of permanent legislation with respect to the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1], before the end of 2015.
On the basis of the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions”, all questions regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed upon with the representatives of these areas of Donetsk and the Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE and to be monitored by the OSCE ODIHR.
To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreements. [These working groups] shall reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Note 1:
Such measures in accordance with the Law “On the special order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” shall include the following:
an exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of individuals associated with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
the right to linguistic self-determination;
the participation of local governments in the appointment of the heads of prosecutorial bodies and the courts in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
an ability for the central executive authorities to enter into agreements regarding economic, social and cultural development of certain regions of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions with the relevant local authorities;
the State shall support the socio-economic development of individual regions of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
facilitation by the central government of cross-border cooperation between certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions and the regions of the Russian Federation;
the establishment of units of People’s Militia by order of local councils with the goal of maintaining public order in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
the powers of local council deputies and officers elected in early elections, to be set by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in accordance with this law, may not be terminated.
Traduzione Gleb Bazov, slaviangrad.org